Electricity Markets, Infrastructure, and Governance: A Framework for Expanding Electricity Access in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa faces a persistent energy access crisis, with over 600 million people still lacking electricity. Despite ongoing reforms efforts, inadequate institutional capacity, and socio-political challenges such as political instability continue to limit electrification efforts. Many Sub-Saharan Africa countries struggle with financially insolvent utilities, and inadequate regulatory capacity, preventing effective reform implementation and infrastructure expansion. This has slowed the progress toward universal electrification in the region. This dissertation develops a comprehensive framework integrating geospatial analysis, transmission system modeling, policy evaluation, and comparative institutional analysis to address these challenges. First, it analyzes electricity access in Nigeria using satellite-based nighttime luminosity (NTL) and population datasets, providing a spatial and temporal assessment of electrification trends. Nigeria, which has the largest population without electricity globally, serves as a critical case study for evaluating the impact of key policy interventions on electricity access at both local and national levels, offering a data-driven approach to electrification policy evaluation. Next, the study examines the institutional and regulatory frameworks necessary for power sector transformation in the West African region. While some countries have undertaken electric power sector reforms, such as unbundling utilities, establishing independent regulators, and expanding private sector participation, the region still faces low electricity access and high sectoral inefficiencies. This study identifies the institutional assumptions in of power sector reform which led to sub-optimal outcomes and explores alternative institutional models, including decentralized energy planning, regulatory sandboxing, and contestable electricity markets, for reform implementation to enhance regulatory independence and institutional flexibility. Finally, the study focuses on regional electricity infrastructure planning, necessary to achieve the goals of the African Single Electricity Market (AfSEM). Using the West African Power Pool (WAPP) as a case study, an Integrated Evaluation Framework (IEF) is developed to assess both quantitative technical performance metrics (line utilization, congestion, and connected load) and qualitative socio-political risk factors (political stability, regulatory capacity, and cost allocation mechanisms) of planned transmission infrastructure. By incorporating geospatial political risk data, this study enhances traditional transmission planning methodologies, offering a more realistic framework for transmission expansion planning. By integrating geospatial analysis, comparative institutional analysis, and transmission infrastructure planning, this dissertation provides a structured approach to scaling electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa.