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Description
A mule deer herd exists on the northern rim of the Grand Canyon, located on the North Kaibab Plateau. Historical references to this indigenous mule deer herd presented reports of periodic population irruption and collapse. Partially funded by the Arizona Game and Fish Department and the Arizona Deer Association, examination of herd nutritional and metabolic status from the Fall 2005 - Spring 2008 was completed at the request of AzGFD and ADA. Habitat analysis included forage micro-histological, protein, and caloric content plus whole blood and plasma assays gauging herd metabolic response. Modelling was completed using best management practices wildlife energy demand calculations and principal component analysis. Forage quality analysis and modelling suggest a sufficient amount of nitrogen (N) available (DPI) to the deer for protein synthesis. Energy analysis (MEI) of forage suggest caloric deficiencies are widely prevalent on the north Kaibab plateau. Principal component analysis integrates forage and metabolic results providing a linear regression model describing the dynamics of forage utilization, energy availability, and forage nitrogen supply with metabolic demand and response of the mule deer herd. Most of the plasma and blood metabolic indicators suggest baseline values for the North Kaibab mule deer. Albumin values are in agreement with albumin values for mule deer in the Southwest. I suggest that the agreed values become a standard for mule deer in the Southwestern U.S. As excess dietary N is converted to a caloric resource, a continual state of under-nutrition exists for the deer upon entering the N. Kaibab winter range. The population is exceeding the nutritional resource plane that the winter habitat provides. Management recommendations include implementation of multiple small-scale habitat rehabilitation efforts over time, including invasive juniper (Juniperous osteosperma) and piñon (Pinus edulis) management, prescribed burning to control big sage (Artemesia tridentata) populations, and reseeding treated areas with a seed mix of native shrubs, grasses and forbs. I recommended that the population size of the North Kaibab deer herd is maintained at the current size with natural selection controlling growth, or the population be artificially reduced through increased hunting opportunities.
ContributorsActon, Matthew W (Author) / Miller, William H. (Thesis advisor) / Brady, Ward W. (Committee member) / Huffman, Holly (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Conflict over management of natural resources may intensify as population growth, development, and climate change stress natural systems. In this dissertation, the role of policy networks implementing Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) is examined. As explored here, policy networks are groups that come together to develop and implement terms of HCPs. HCPs are necessary for private landowners to receive Incidental Take Permits (ITPs) from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) if approved development activities may result in take of threatened or endangered species. ITPs may last up to 100 years or more and be issued to individual or multiple landowners to accomplish development and habitat conservation goals within a region.
Theoretical factors in the implementation and policy network literatures relevant to successful implementation of environmental agreements are reviewed and used to examine HCP implementation. Phase I uses the USFWS Environmental Conservation Online System (ECOS) database to identify characteristics of policy networks formed to implement HCPs within the State of California, and how those networks changed since the creation of HCPs in 1982 by amendment of the 1973 Endangered Species Act. Phase II presents a single, complex, multiple-party HCP case selected from Phase I to examine the policy network formed, the role of actors in this network, and network successes and implementation barriers.
This research builds upon the implementation literature by demonstrating that implementation occurs in stages, not all of which are sequential, and that how implementation processes are structured and executed has a direct impact on perceptions of success.
It builds upon the policy network literature by demonstrating ways that participation by non-agency actors can enhance implementation; complex problems may better achieve conflicting goals by creating organizational structures made up of local, state, federal and non-governmental entities to better manage changing political, financial, and social conditions; if participants believe the transaction costs of maintaining a network outweigh the benefits, ongoing support may decline; what one perceives as success largely depends upon their role (or lack of a role) within the policy network; and conflict management processes perceived as fair and equitable significantly contribute to perceptions of policy effectiveness.
Theoretical factors in the implementation and policy network literatures relevant to successful implementation of environmental agreements are reviewed and used to examine HCP implementation. Phase I uses the USFWS Environmental Conservation Online System (ECOS) database to identify characteristics of policy networks formed to implement HCPs within the State of California, and how those networks changed since the creation of HCPs in 1982 by amendment of the 1973 Endangered Species Act. Phase II presents a single, complex, multiple-party HCP case selected from Phase I to examine the policy network formed, the role of actors in this network, and network successes and implementation barriers.
This research builds upon the implementation literature by demonstrating that implementation occurs in stages, not all of which are sequential, and that how implementation processes are structured and executed has a direct impact on perceptions of success.
It builds upon the policy network literature by demonstrating ways that participation by non-agency actors can enhance implementation; complex problems may better achieve conflicting goals by creating organizational structures made up of local, state, federal and non-governmental entities to better manage changing political, financial, and social conditions; if participants believe the transaction costs of maintaining a network outweigh the benefits, ongoing support may decline; what one perceives as success largely depends upon their role (or lack of a role) within the policy network; and conflict management processes perceived as fair and equitable significantly contribute to perceptions of policy effectiveness.
ContributorsReece, Mary, J (Author) / Corley, Elizabeth A (Thesis advisor) / Cayer, N J (Committee member) / Lucio, Joanna (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Amsonia kearneyana is an endangered herbaceous plant endemic to a small area of the Baboquivari Mountains in southern Arizona. It exists in two distinct habitat types: 1) along the banks of a lower elevation ephemeral stream in a xeroriparian community, and 2) a higher elevation Madrean oak woodland on steep mountain slopes. Half of the largest known montane population (Upper Brown Canyon) was burned in a large fire in 2009 raising questions of the species capacity to recover after fire. This research sought to understand how the effects of fire will impact A. kearneyana's ability to recruit and survive in the burned versus unburned areas and in the montane versus xeroriparian habitat.
I compared population size, abiotic habitat characteristics, leaf traits, plant size, and reproductive output for plants in each habitat area for three years. Plants in the more shaded unburned montane area, the most populated population, presented with the most clonal establishment but produced the least amount of seeds per plant. The unshaded burned area produced more seeds per plant than in the unburned area. Lower Brown Canyon, the xeroriparian area, had the fewest plants, but produced the most seeds per plant while experiencing higher soil temperature, soil moisture, photosynthetically active radiation, and canopy cover than the montane plants. This could indicate conditions in Lower Brown Canyon are more favorable for seed production.
Despite ample seed production, recruitment is rare in wild plants. This study establishes germination requirements testing soil type, seed burial depth, temperature regimes, and shade treatments. Trials indicate that A. kearneyana can germinate and grow in varied light levels, and that soil type and seed burial depth are better predictors of growth than the degree of shade.
Finally, this study examined the law, regulation, policy, and physiological risks and benefits of a new management strategy and suggests that "conservation by dissemination" is appropriate for A. kearneyana. Conservation by dissemination is the idea that a protected plant species can be conserved by allowing and promoting the propagation and sale of plants in the commercial market with contingent collection of data on the fate of the sold individuals.
I compared population size, abiotic habitat characteristics, leaf traits, plant size, and reproductive output for plants in each habitat area for three years. Plants in the more shaded unburned montane area, the most populated population, presented with the most clonal establishment but produced the least amount of seeds per plant. The unshaded burned area produced more seeds per plant than in the unburned area. Lower Brown Canyon, the xeroriparian area, had the fewest plants, but produced the most seeds per plant while experiencing higher soil temperature, soil moisture, photosynthetically active radiation, and canopy cover than the montane plants. This could indicate conditions in Lower Brown Canyon are more favorable for seed production.
Despite ample seed production, recruitment is rare in wild plants. This study establishes germination requirements testing soil type, seed burial depth, temperature regimes, and shade treatments. Trials indicate that A. kearneyana can germinate and grow in varied light levels, and that soil type and seed burial depth are better predictors of growth than the degree of shade.
Finally, this study examined the law, regulation, policy, and physiological risks and benefits of a new management strategy and suggests that "conservation by dissemination" is appropriate for A. kearneyana. Conservation by dissemination is the idea that a protected plant species can be conserved by allowing and promoting the propagation and sale of plants in the commercial market with contingent collection of data on the fate of the sold individuals.
ContributorsYost, Tyna (Author) / Stromberg, Juliet (Thesis advisor) / McCue, Kimberlie (Committee member) / Bradshaw-Schulz, Karen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Landscape restoration is a global priority as evidenced by the United Nations’ 2020 goal to restore 150 million hectares of land worldwide. Restoration is particularly needed in estuaries and their watersheds as society depends on these environments for numerous benefits. Estuary restoration is often undermined by social-ecological scale mismatch, the incongruence between governing units and the bio-physical resources they seek to govern. Despite growing recognition of this fact, few empirical studies focus on scale mismatches in environmental restoration work. Using a sub-basin of Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., I analyze scale mismatches in estuary restoration. I take a network science approach because governance networks can bridge scale mismatches. I combine quantitative social network analysis (SNA), geographic information systems (GIS), and qualitative interview analysis.
Spatial network analysis reveals several areas with weak scale mismatch bridging networks. These weak social networks are then compared to ecological restoration needs to identify coupled social-ecological restoration concerns. Subsequent study investigates jurisdictional and sectoral network integration because governance siloes contribute to scale mismatch. While the network is fairly well integrated, several sectors do not interact or interact very little. An analysis of collaboration reasons disentangles the idea of generic collaboration. Among three relationship types considered, mandated relationships contribute almost 5.5 times less to perceived collaboration productivity than shared interest relationships, highlighting the benefits of true collaborations in watershed governance. Lastly, the effects of scale mismatch on individual restoration projects and landscape level restoration planning are assessed through qualitative interview analysis. Results illustrate why human-environment processes should be included in landscape restoration planning. Social factors are not considered as constraints to restoration but rather part of the very landscape fabric to be restored. Scale mismatch is conceptualized as a complex social-ecological landscape pattern that affects the flow of financial, human, and natural capital across the landscape. This represents a new way of thinking about scale mismatch and landscape restoration in complex multi-level governance systems. In addition, the maps, network diagnostics, and narratives in this dissertation can help practitioners in Puget Sound and provide proofs of concepts that can be replicated elsewhere for restoration and broader conservation sciences.
Spatial network analysis reveals several areas with weak scale mismatch bridging networks. These weak social networks are then compared to ecological restoration needs to identify coupled social-ecological restoration concerns. Subsequent study investigates jurisdictional and sectoral network integration because governance siloes contribute to scale mismatch. While the network is fairly well integrated, several sectors do not interact or interact very little. An analysis of collaboration reasons disentangles the idea of generic collaboration. Among three relationship types considered, mandated relationships contribute almost 5.5 times less to perceived collaboration productivity than shared interest relationships, highlighting the benefits of true collaborations in watershed governance. Lastly, the effects of scale mismatch on individual restoration projects and landscape level restoration planning are assessed through qualitative interview analysis. Results illustrate why human-environment processes should be included in landscape restoration planning. Social factors are not considered as constraints to restoration but rather part of the very landscape fabric to be restored. Scale mismatch is conceptualized as a complex social-ecological landscape pattern that affects the flow of financial, human, and natural capital across the landscape. This represents a new way of thinking about scale mismatch and landscape restoration in complex multi-level governance systems. In addition, the maps, network diagnostics, and narratives in this dissertation can help practitioners in Puget Sound and provide proofs of concepts that can be replicated elsewhere for restoration and broader conservation sciences.
ContributorsSayles, Jesse Saemann (Author) / Turner II, B L (Thesis advisor) / Childers, Daniel L. (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco A (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
ABSTRACT
Modern management techniques to maintain rangelands and deter encroachment of juniper into grassland habitats currently includes fire prescription. Additionally, a large body of research has indicated that fire has multiple benefits to grasslands resulting in increased diversity of flora and fauna. In the semi-arid grassland of the Agua Fria National Monument, fire treatments may be able to provide similar advantages. This study considers two methods of fire prescription on the Agua Fria National Monument within central Arizona: 1) Juniper thinning with pile burning; 2) Broadcast burning.
The Agua Fria National Monument upland ecosystem has limited research focusing on semi-arid grassland and juniper stand’s response to implemented treatments over time. The four year monitoring duration of this study aids in assessing the outcome of treatments and reaching the objectives of the management plan.
Vegetation in 981 quadrats was measured for species richness, cover, densities, height, and biomass during the fire prescription period from 2009 through 2013. The study was divided into two treatment types: 1) Juniper cutting and pile burn; 2) Broadcast burn areas in open grasslands.
Results of this study provide consistent examples of vegetative change and community movement towards positive response. Percent composition of overall vegetation is 5 – 30% with >50% of litter, bare ground and rock cover. Juniper sites have immediate consequences from tree thinning activities that may be beneficial to wildlife, particularly as connective corridors pronghorn antelope. Grass height was significantly reduced as well as forb density. Forbs that are highly responsive to environmental factors indicate an increase after the second year. Analysis results from grasslands indicated that cactus and unpalatable shrubs are reduced by fire but a return to pre-burn conditions occur by the third year after fire disturbance. Percent cover of perennial grasses has shown a slow increase. Wright’s buckwheat, a palatable shrub, has increased in density and height, indicating fire adaptations in the species. Species richness was reduced in the first year but increase in density continues into the third year after burn.
Modern management techniques to maintain rangelands and deter encroachment of juniper into grassland habitats currently includes fire prescription. Additionally, a large body of research has indicated that fire has multiple benefits to grasslands resulting in increased diversity of flora and fauna. In the semi-arid grassland of the Agua Fria National Monument, fire treatments may be able to provide similar advantages. This study considers two methods of fire prescription on the Agua Fria National Monument within central Arizona: 1) Juniper thinning with pile burning; 2) Broadcast burning.
The Agua Fria National Monument upland ecosystem has limited research focusing on semi-arid grassland and juniper stand’s response to implemented treatments over time. The four year monitoring duration of this study aids in assessing the outcome of treatments and reaching the objectives of the management plan.
Vegetation in 981 quadrats was measured for species richness, cover, densities, height, and biomass during the fire prescription period from 2009 through 2013. The study was divided into two treatment types: 1) Juniper cutting and pile burn; 2) Broadcast burn areas in open grasslands.
Results of this study provide consistent examples of vegetative change and community movement towards positive response. Percent composition of overall vegetation is 5 – 30% with >50% of litter, bare ground and rock cover. Juniper sites have immediate consequences from tree thinning activities that may be beneficial to wildlife, particularly as connective corridors pronghorn antelope. Grass height was significantly reduced as well as forb density. Forbs that are highly responsive to environmental factors indicate an increase after the second year. Analysis results from grasslands indicated that cactus and unpalatable shrubs are reduced by fire but a return to pre-burn conditions occur by the third year after fire disturbance. Percent cover of perennial grasses has shown a slow increase. Wright’s buckwheat, a palatable shrub, has increased in density and height, indicating fire adaptations in the species. Species richness was reduced in the first year but increase in density continues into the third year after burn.
ContributorsCole-Snow, Kimberly Sue (Author) / Alford, Eddie (Thesis advisor) / Miller, William (Committee member) / Green, Douglas (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
In riparian ecosystems, reptiles and amphibians are good indicators of environmental conditions. Herpetofauna have been linked to specific microhabitat characteristics, microclimates, and water resources in riparian forests. My objective was to relate herpetofauna abundance to changes in riparian habitat along the Virgin River caused by the Tamarix biological control agent, Diorhabda carinulata, and riparian restoration.
During 2013 and 2014, vegetation and herpetofauna were monitored at 21 riparian locations along the Virgin River via trapping and visual encounter surveys. Study sites were divided into four stand types based on density and percent cover of dominant trees (Tamarix, Prosopis, Populus, and Salix) and presence of restoration activities: Tam, Tam-Pros, Tam-Pop/Sal, and Restored Tam-Pop/Sal. Restoration activities consisted of mechanical removal of non-native trees, transplanting native trees, and introduction of water flow. All sites were affected by biological control. I predicted that herpetofauna abundance would vary between stand types and that herpetofauna abundance would be greatest in Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites due to increased habitat openness and variation following restoration efforts.
Results from trapping indicated that Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites had three times more total lizard and eight times more Sceloporus uniformis captures than other stand types. Anaxyrus woodhousii abundance was greatest in Tam-Pop/Sal and Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites. Visual encounter surveys indicated that herpetofauna abundance was greatest in the Restored Tam-Pop/Sal site compared to the adjacent Unrestored Tam-Pop/Sal site. Habitat variables were reduced to six components using a principle component analysis and significant differences were detected among stand types. Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites were most similar to Tam-Pop/Sal sites. S. uniformis were positively associated with large woody debris and high densities of Populus, Salix, and large diameter Prosopis.
Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites likely supported higher abundances of herpetofauna, as these areas exhibited greater habitat heterogeneity. Restoration activities created a mosaic habitat by reducing canopy cover and increasing native tree density and surface water. Natural resource managers should consider implementing additional restoration efforts following biological control when attempting to restore riparian areas dominated by Tamarix and other non-native trees.
During 2013 and 2014, vegetation and herpetofauna were monitored at 21 riparian locations along the Virgin River via trapping and visual encounter surveys. Study sites were divided into four stand types based on density and percent cover of dominant trees (Tamarix, Prosopis, Populus, and Salix) and presence of restoration activities: Tam, Tam-Pros, Tam-Pop/Sal, and Restored Tam-Pop/Sal. Restoration activities consisted of mechanical removal of non-native trees, transplanting native trees, and introduction of water flow. All sites were affected by biological control. I predicted that herpetofauna abundance would vary between stand types and that herpetofauna abundance would be greatest in Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites due to increased habitat openness and variation following restoration efforts.
Results from trapping indicated that Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites had three times more total lizard and eight times more Sceloporus uniformis captures than other stand types. Anaxyrus woodhousii abundance was greatest in Tam-Pop/Sal and Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites. Visual encounter surveys indicated that herpetofauna abundance was greatest in the Restored Tam-Pop/Sal site compared to the adjacent Unrestored Tam-Pop/Sal site. Habitat variables were reduced to six components using a principle component analysis and significant differences were detected among stand types. Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites were most similar to Tam-Pop/Sal sites. S. uniformis were positively associated with large woody debris and high densities of Populus, Salix, and large diameter Prosopis.
Restored Tam-Pop/Sal sites likely supported higher abundances of herpetofauna, as these areas exhibited greater habitat heterogeneity. Restoration activities created a mosaic habitat by reducing canopy cover and increasing native tree density and surface water. Natural resource managers should consider implementing additional restoration efforts following biological control when attempting to restore riparian areas dominated by Tamarix and other non-native trees.
ContributorsMosher, Kent (Author) / Bateman, Heather L (Thesis advisor) / Stromberg, Juliet C. (Committee member) / Miller, William H. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Consumption of seafood poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Chemical contamination found in both wild-caught and farmed seafood also presents significant health risks to consumers. Flame retardants, used in textiles, upholstery, plastics, and other products to reduce risk of fire-related injury, are of particular concern as they are commonly found in the marine environment and permeate the tissues of fish that are sold for consumption via multiple pathways. The widespread issue of fishery collapse could be alleviated by demonstrating to stakeholders that many unsustainable fish stocks are also unhealthy and mutually disadvantageous for both human consumers and the environment. To thoroughly investigate the confounding factors and contradictory signals enmeshed in the relationship between ecologically sustainable fisheries and flame retardant contamination, I examined the biological characteristics of regional fish stocks which drive both contamination and perceived sustainability. I found that the biological and spatial aspects of commonly consumed aquatic and marine species best predict contamination when compared with various indices of sustainability. My results confirm that knowledge of flame retardant toxicity will become increasingly more important to consumers because a high percentage of global populations rely on coastal seafood for subsistence, and although dispersal of chemical contamination is still a poorly understood phenomenon, fish harvested closer to land are likely to contain higher concentrations of potentially harmful chemicals. Because some of the same biological traits which facilitate the uptake of chemicals also contribute to how a species responds to fishing pressures, concern for private health increases public consideration for the conservation of species at risk.
ContributorsNoziglia, Andrea (Author) / Gerber, Leah (Thesis advisor) / Abbott, Joshua (Committee member) / Polidoro, Beth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Firstly, this study uses community asset mapping guided by the Community Capitals Framework (CCF) to explore the linkages between Protected Areas (PAs), tourism and community livelihoods. Secondly, it assesses changes in community needs facilitated by community participation in wildlife-based tourism in a protected area setting. Thirdly and finally, the study assesses whether the introduction of community wildlife-based tourism in a protected area as a sustainable management tool has led to the spiraling up or down of community capitals. The study adopted qualitative research method approach and made use of data collected through community asset mapping supplemented by data from focus group discussions, households, key informants, and secondary data materials that were analyzed and interpreted in light of community capital framework. The Chobe National Park (CNP) and Chobe Enclave Conservation Trust (CECT); a community living adjacent to CNP in Botswana provides the context on which this study's discussion focuses. Results indicate that the accession of Botswana from colonialism through post colonialism era intertwined considerable institutional arrangement changes in the field of protected area governance that reflects evolutionary management styles. Protected areas, tourism and community livelihoods linkages are based on many inter-dependents of community capitals relationships which are dependent on community socio-economic activities. In assessing changes in community needs, the results indicate that participation in wildlife-based tourism has brought both positive and negative changes that have implications on both the status quo for community livelihoods and protected areas, namely; the influence of changes in community capitals dynamics, mechanization and commercialization of agriculture, government funded infrastructural development, income generation, and the commodification of some of the community capitals. Finally, the increased livelihoods options and diversification dynamics, fragile wildlife-livestock co-existence, heightened human-wildlife conflicts, environmental education and awareness are the emerging themes that explain how the introduction of tourism in a protected area setting affect the spiraling up and down of the community capitals dynamics.
ContributorsStone, Moren T. (Author) / Nyaupane, Gyan P (Thesis advisor) / Buduk, Megha (Committee member) / Thapa, Brijesh (Committee member) / Timothy, Dallen J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Grassland habitat restoration activities are occurring within the semi-arid grasslands of the Agua Fria National Monument located 65 km north of Phoenix, AZ. The goal of these restoration activities is to reduce woody species encroachment, remove lignified plant materials and recycle nutrients within the ecosystem thus improving range conditions for both wildlife species and livestock. Broadcast burning, juniper thinning and slash pile burns are the principle tools used to accomplish resource objectives. Line cover, belt transect, densities, heights and biomass of vegetation data were collected to determine the response of the vegetative community to habitat restoration activities. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to reduce data analysis to the more influential factors. Regression analysis was conducted for statistically significant response variables. Quadratic regression analysis found low predictive values. In broadcast burn treatment units, all important factors as identified by PCA had low predictive factors but significantly differed (R2 <0.01, p<0.05) between unburned and the years post treatment. Regression analysis found significant, albeit weak, relationships between time since treatment and independent variables. In pile burn treatment units, data reduction by PCA was not possible in a biologically meaningful way due to the high variability within treatment units. This suggests the effect of juniper encroachment on grassland vegetation persists long after junipers have been cut and burned. This study concluded that broadcast burning of the central Arizona grasslands does significantly alter many components of the vegetative community. Fuels treatments generally initially reduced both perennial woody species and grasses in number and height for two year post fire. However, palatable shrubs, in particular shrubby buckwheat, were not significantly different in broadcast burn treatment areas. The vegetative community characteristics of juniper encroached woodlands of central Arizona are unaffected by the removal and burning of junipers aside from the removal of hiding cover for predators for multiple years. It is recommended that habitat restoration activities continue provided the needs of wildlife are considered, especially pronghorn, with the incorporation of state and transition models specific to each of the respective ecological site descriptions and with the consideration of the effects of fire to pronghorn fawning habitat.
ContributorsSitzmann, Paul Roman (Author) / Miller, William (Thesis advisor) / Alford, Eddie (Committee member) / Green, Douglas (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Species distribution modeling is used to study changes in biodiversity and species range shifts, two currently well-known manifestations of climate change. The focus of this study is to explore how distributions of suitable habitat might shift under climate change for shrub communities within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area (SMMNRA), through a comparison of community level to individual species level distribution modeling. Species level modeling is more commonly utilized, in part because community level modeling requires detailed community composition data that are not always available. However, community level modeling may better detect patterns in biodiversity. To examine the projected impact on suitable habitat in the study area, I used the MaxEnt modeling algorithm to create and evaluate species distribution models with presence only data for two future climate models at community and individual species levels. I contrasted the outcomes as a method to describe uncertainty in projected models. To derive a range of sensitivity outcomes I extracted probability frequency distributions for suitable habitat from raster grids for communities modeled directly as species groups and contrasted those with communities assembled from intersected individual species models. The intersected species models were more sensitive to climate change relative to the grouped community models. Suitable habitat in SMMNRA's bounds was projected to decline from about 30-90% for the intersected models and about 20-80% for the grouped models from its current state. Models generally captured floristic distinction between community types as drought tolerance. Overall the impact on drought tolerant communities, growing in hotter, drier habitat such as Coastal Sage Scrub, was predicted to be less than on communities growing in cooler, moister more interior habitat, such as some chaparral types. Of the two future climate change models, the wetter model projected less impact for most communities. These results help define risk exposure for communities and species in this conservation area and could be used by managers to focus vegetation monitoring tasks to detect early response to climate change. Increasingly hot and dry conditions could motivate opportunistic restoration projects for Coastal Sage Scrub, a threatened vegetation type in Southern California.
ContributorsJames, Jennifer (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014